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5*

5-Star Green Bay +6’ over DALLAS—This game seems destined
to be decided on the final drive, as both offense have quick-strike
potential. When the game is going to be decided late, the points are
the way to go. Green Bay is off two double-digit wins, so their defense
hasn’t been asked for a supreme effort to stop a drive that might
determine the outcome of the game. This should have them 100%
fresh and rarin’ to go here. The Packers are 8-0 ATS when they were
up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on
the road, covering the spread by an average of 17.2 ppg. Also, Green
Bay is 8-0 ATS the week after scoring 34+ points on the road, covering
the spread by a staggering 19.6 ppg. This latter trend is featured
in the space below. The SDQL text is given as well as the complete
game listing. In the ATSm column we can see that the packers have
covered the spread by double-digits in each of the eight qualifying
games. Also, it can bee seen that the packers have already produced
one winner in this situation this season, when they beat the Chargers
31-24 getting 4’ at home in week 3.
The Packers scored 36 points last week, but three times they were
forced to kick short field goals. Mason Crosby kicked TWO 20-
yarders and a 26-yarder for the Packers. We look for more efficiency
from inside the 10-yard line here, as the Packers are a perfect 10-0
ATS on the road after a game in which they failed to get in the end
zone on at least one goal-to-go, covering the spread by an average of
14.9 ppg. This fabulous team trend already has produced two winners
this season.
The Cowboys also played on Thanksgiving and they also had
an easy time of it, winning 34-3 over the Jets. Dallas held the Jets
pathetic offense to only 9 first downs and 22:08 of possession time.
The Cowboys offense had ten first downs rushing and 11 first downs
passing. The Cowboys, unlike the Packers, lose their toughness and
edge after an easy win.
Cowboys are only 4-7 SU in this situation, disappointing the linesmakers
by an average of 12.0 ppg.
In addition, the Cowboys are 0-12 ATS as a favorite the week
after a home game in which they had at least three more minutes of
possession time than their season-to-date average, failing to cover by
an average of 10.5 ppg. Also, Dallas is 0-7 ATS the week after a win
in which they got at least ten first downs via the rush.
Finally, we have a great league-wide system that involves games
between teams with the same record. When a team is playing their
second straight road game vs a team with the same record and their
previous game was not a blowout (decided by fewer than 20 points),
the team is 14-0 ATS covering by an average of 9.6 ppg. Both the
Packers and the Cowboys are 10-1 on the season, the Packers were
on the road last week and Green Bay game vs the Lions was decided
by fewer than 20 points. This means that the Packers qualify for
this same-record system, which has already produced two winners
this season. Grab the points as Dallas is over-rated and the Packers
are getting better each week. A moneyline play should be strongly
considered as well.
MTi’s FORECAST: Green Bay 37 Dallas 24