Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
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A good example imo. His range is pretty much mid PPs, straight draws and Kx. I doubt he calls any river bet anyway with a PP given the board and he obviously is folding busted straight draws. Since he didnt lead the river that leads me to think his hand is meh and hes looking for a cheap showdown and makes Kx his most likely holding. Since were splitting with Kx an overbet here is a good way to push him off it and let me win the pot outright
River: ($82) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $98</font>, BB folds
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I think this is a good example of the overbet to avoid a split, but that's a pretty specific applicatio. What I wonder here is how much the extra $16 mattered? That is, he may also have folded to $25 or $50 or $75. The key variables that I don't see being discussed much are
* What % of the time do what dollar amounts get called by worse hands?
* What % of the time do what dollar amounts get called by better hands?
If we have estimates of those, we can actually solve the EV question of the bet size.
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