Re: So, how disappointed would YOU be?
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From what I've seen in the last 4-5 years, you only have about a 20% chance or less of splitting the big multi-state lotteries.
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I'd be very surprised if that were true. You can calculate the expected share of the lottery from the number of tickets n and probability of winning with one ticket p, with the usual simplifying assumptions that people choose independently and uniformly. The probability that someone wins is 1-(1-p)^n. Your expected share from a ticket is (1-(1-p)^n)/n. So, your expected share conditional on winning is (1-(1-p)^n)/(np).
You can determine the number of tickets sold between drawings in many lotteries by the increase in the pretax lump sum prize or by discounting the announced jackpot. Usually, about 25% of the ticket price goes into the jackpot.
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