Re: some may hate this?
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basically stef we're assuming hands he would have played this way preflop and on the flop are AJ+. It's debatable about how often he caps AJo here preflop (or 3bets it on the flop) but this is pretty much his range, AQ+ seems very likely. Using hand reading going into the river we are assuming he has a big ace and thus assign this range.
out of those hands, there are 12 combos of each AK AQ and AJ. Out of those 12 combos 5 contain 1 heart, and one contains 2 (this we can discount somewhat since he didnt raise the turn). I think nick just messed up the numbers he came up with doing the combinatorial analysis. Either that or I have, which i dont think i did. I think nick just accidentally said there were 16 combos of each (true if the A isnt down), then discounted the one Ahxh combo from the total but then not from the number of hands that have a flush.
These numbers aren't the odds he makes a flush if he had a heart; they are the numbers that represent how many of his likely holdings will have a flush on the river.
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Yeah, this is right. (And you figured out what I did wrong, too.)
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