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It turns out that if 34 of these key showdowns had gone my way instead of Villain's way, the percentages would be swapped. I was ITM 472 times. So, if I could have reached in and changed just 7% of these key showdowns, I would be running just fine and dandy.


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It's a shame you won't be reading this, but I raised a very similar point with Ryan in #STT a few months ago.

Essentially I was beginning to think that given the nature of SNGs your finish distribution will be determined by just a few hands. I interpretted this to mean that the necessary sample size to get close to a true ROI has to be almost astronomical to get around the enormous swings associated with so few hands entirely determining your winrate. As you have shown, just a few of those key hand going the other way can swing things to a very favorable outcome.