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Old 11-25-2007, 10:55 AM
jfish jfish is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: what else is on my mind grapes?
Posts: 8,150
Default Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?

on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.

ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations):

AQs - 2
AJd-A2d - 10
KQs/KQo - 16
JTs/JTo - 16
88 - 3

(50 total combos)

hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop):

T9d - 1
QJs-Q8s - 16
QJo-Q9o - 36
JJ-99 - 18

(71 total combos)

you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody.
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