Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.
ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations):
AQs - 2
AJd-A2d - 10
KQs/KQo - 16
JTs/JTo - 16
88 - 3
(50 total combos)
hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop):
T9d - 1
QJs-Q8s - 16
QJo-Q9o - 36
JJ-99 - 18
(71 total combos)
you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody.
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