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Old 11-10-2006, 03:10 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 2,260
Default Re: 2 overcards + small draws: Mathematically incorrect to call an all-in?

I know you asked about odds, but also consider the poker.

BB knows he's going heads up against a 6BB raiser. LAG or not, he probably has something. If he things you're stealing he might raise with nothing, but calling should mean he thinks there's a flop he might hit hard. A low pair or suited connectors are the likely hands; or maybe a high/card low card suited hand.

He checks on the flop, then goes all-in when you make a strong bet. That makes sense if he hit a set or two pair. He shouldn't do it on less. Of course, being LAG, he might do it on general principles, or because he thinks you're trying to steal because no high cards came on the flop.

The trouble is he either has you beat, or he's likely to have a hand that cuts into your outs. If he paired the low card of his high card/low card hand, he may have a K or Q. If not, he could have an A. He might have been dealt a pair and missed the flop.

Yes, you could hit your straight or flush, but you can't get any extra money if you do. If you don't hit either of those, you need to hope both that he started with an unlikely hand for this betting even for an LAG, and that you get one of six cards on the turn or river.

If he's bad enough to make this a good call, you can take his money more safely on another hand.
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