[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, your stack as a whole does gain utility from an early double-up, but it's less than double the utility of your original stack. If you're only 0.1% EV+ to double-up you are overpaying for the expected utility gained.

[/ QUOTE ]

This paragraph from my earlier post is misleading. I wasn't thinking about this quite right.

For *any* normal play (normal as in another player doesn't dump his chips to you), your $/unit cost for expected gain in stack utility is far higher than the $/unit cost of gain in stack utility of a buyin or a rebuy.

The problem arises for the case of an early allin of marginal EV+. These plays have an expected $/utility cost which is astronomically higher than at time of buyin.

The way to understand why this is a bad play is to compare it to simultaneously entering another identical tournament at the exact moment before you make the allin:

Your $ cost of entering the 2nd tourney is only slightly more than your effective $ cost of making the allin play.

Your starting M in the 2nd tourney will be only slightly less than it currently is in the first.

But your $/unit cost of stack utility for entering the 2nd tournament will be far low than the $/unit cost of expected stack utility for the allin play.

Clearly, entering a 2nd tournament is a better use of the $ cost of a buyin (effectively equivalent to your current stack) than making the allin play.

Since MTTs are games of forced assumption of progressively greater risk, you should avoid plays which are probabalistically roughly equivalent to starting over but which have a higher $/utility cost.

To think otherwise is to value your personal time and bankroll risk at zero.

And that is why early allins of marginal EV+ are $EV- and should always be avoided.