[craigthedeac]

24 down to 18 moved really fast. They moved fast last week too.

Even the most conservative estimate for you Vanessa, in my opinion, is a 90% chance of qualifying with your 90k stack by avoiding any significant risks. Frankly I think this number is more like 97% because you can make a few cheap steals preflop (like you had been doing) and maintain your stack, not to mention that everyone was playing really aggro and it was only a matter of time where you would walk in. People got in with like 25k and it wasn't nearly that many orbits after I was eliminated.

Okay, so let's look at the 90% figure. You correctly put me on any two cards to shove in that spot. AQo is about 65% versus my range. So 35% of the time you are down to 45k, 65% of the time you are definitely in (100%).

Now it's just a matter of determining the chance of getting in with 45k. At the time there were probably 14 stacks within this range, 7 of which got seats. I estimate that you're probably around 50% in this situation. But even if we look at the best case scenario for you, say like 70% with 45k, it would still be a fold.

30% to lose with a 45k stack mulitplied by the 35% of the time you get to that spot, 10.5% chance you bust by calling with AQo there. 10% if you just fold.

Again, those are really conservative figures and they still point to a fold. If you use say 95% with your current stack and say 50% with 45k, .35*.5 = 17.5% to lose by calling with AQo verus 5% to lose by avoiding risk.

It's not really close in my opinion. Anyways, congrats on the seat. The point of my post is not to berate you or anything, it was merely to create discussion on what you should be calling with there as it was what I considered when making the shove. If it comes off negatively, I apologize, it's probably just my frustration from bubbling 2 PCA seats this weekend.