[vhawk01]

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FO's o-line stats have the Cards with a 71% Power Success (7th in the NFL). Power Success is defined as "Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks."

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it should also be taken into account that the niner's d-line blows

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Power Success isn't directly applicable for this situation. In a 4th and goal from the 1, the defense has a much smaller area to defend. The Cardinals also have great receivers who are downfield threats, in a normal third or fourth down situation teams have to respect that, and can't bring their safeties up as hard. One the 1 yard line, the SF D line is also less important given they will have eight in the box.

Area to defend is why 2pt conversion ratios are basically 50%. The Cards from the 1 yard line would have been higher than 50%, but probably not as high as 71%. If someone can find NFL stats from the 1 yard line it would be much more predictive than Power Success.

So let's say the Cards were 65% to score from the 1. The way they were rolling offensively, why wouldn't they be close to 65% in over-time? The one thing Whiz has shown is an understanding of the percentages and a willingness to take risks to win games (such as going for it on 4th and 1 to take the lead in the 4th, and throwing with 6 seconds left).

He might have made a slightly -EV decision to minimize potential criticism, but I doubt he gave up significant EV.

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How much smaller of an area do they have to defend? On what planet is there a 4th and 1 from the 50 and there are NOT 8 guys in the box? I really dont get this. Yeah for some teams they have to respect some TINY chance of them throwing a deep bomb. But that doesnt mean they are lining guys up 20 yards down field or putting 6-7 guys in the box. There are always 8 in the box, safeties are always up, and no one is more than 11 or so yards from the LOS.