[cero_z]

Hi ocklind,

Interesting and well-thought-out post. Here are my thoughts:

Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind. You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

I'd probably tend to call here with the intention of calling most rivers (blanks for sure, and re-eval on bad-looking cards) if he bets, and betting small if he checks. 3-bet Shoving the turn could also be decent if you were perceived as aggressive (which it doesn't sound like you are).

One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

So to sum up, given your actual range, Qs up is near the bottom, but your turn-betting range should put Qs up near the top IMO.