View Single Post
  #7  
Old 11-16-2007, 07:50 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,515
Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

The play is so bad in low stakes live NL games that it doesn't take great skills to win enough to make a living. It takes putting in the hours.

Your friend's advice was terrible. There are some correct pieces, but there were deep misconceptions built in, too, and he missed some important ideas.

Not all top pairs are created equal. Lower top pairs are much weaker than top pairs of aces or kings. For example, suppose you are up against a flush draw. If you have paired the board's ace, your opponent probably has 9 outs. If you have paired the board's top card which is a nine, it is likely that your opponent has 12 or 15 outs with a flush draw and overcards, and there tend to be more possible straight draws, so no card is safe.

Obviously, with 98 on a 943 board, your kicker isn't great, either. It's hard for someone to have a worse kicker than yours.

Position matters a lot. You should bet a lot more frequently when you have position. If your hand will win at showdown 1/3 of the time, and you will get two callers, then you generally expect to get more than 1/3 of the pot if you are in position, and less than 1/3 of the pot if you are out of position, so making the pot bigger is not neutral. It's good in position, and bad out of position.

So, your hand is not very strong and you have an information disadvantage. That is part of why it is reasonable to check/call or check/fold on this flop.

With a stronger hand, or in position, it may be a good idea to bet, even if there are a lot of draws and you won't get them to fold. If you get three callers, par is to win 25% of the time. You should not regret betting if you win 40% of the time, even though some uniformed people will say you are a favorite to lose. It is more reasonable to say that you are a favorite any time you win more than par. The amount you win by betting more than makes up for the small losses most of the time. You will regret checking if someone who would have folded to a bet wins because you gave a free card.
Reply With Quote