View Single Post
  #12  
Old 11-06-2007, 11:48 AM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When talking about playing speculative hands, I often read about needinh a certain number of callers/limpers to play hands such as K3s or 67s. However, I've don't recall anything specifically mathematical about such hands.

As an example, early in 180 player SNG I had K3 in the big blind. Blinds were 15/30. One caller, and it's to me with 75 in the pot.

One the one hand, there is only one limper to play a speculative hand. One the other hand, I'm getting 5:1 (75:15) to call.

Is this a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

(edited for spelling and syntax)

Ok, I appreciate and will consider all the input. However, is there an optimal/mathematical answer to this question? Are there odds (10-1? 15-1?) where this is absolutely a call?

I'm trying to sort this out. There have been several times recently when in a micro limpament I've been getting huge odds (10-1 or better) with a weak hand, and I'm trying to figure out if at some point the odds force a call with certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a question of odds or mathematics. There is only one scenario where it would be. And that scenario is if there was no more betting, or no more decisions. Sure if you are getting 15:1 on a call and can see all five board cards and don't have to put any more money in the pot, then go ahead, it's probably a correct call with lots of hands.

However, these scenarios usually involve flop play with a significant stack left behind. This is where the trouble can begin.

Take your K3s. A perfect flop might be KK3 or K33. How often does this happen? And if it does, there could be another K out there. And if he pairs his kicker, which is surely better than your kicker, you will lose your stack.

Another really great flop might be a K high flush. However, a A high flush is going to stack you and even a bare A in that suit has a good chance of beating you.

Okay so those are the ideal flops. What about the really good flops like KK9? Well again, any K will likely have you outkicked and stack you. 99 will stack you.

How about a good flop of K 9 2 on a dry board? Any trouble heading your way here?

Here is a piece of advice I was given a while ago by an expert player. Try not to put yourself into a position where you are faced with a difficult decision. I know that as we get experience we say things like "I'll just see this flop and go from there" with trash hands like K3s. And you know what? A lot of the time, you will be putting yourself in a position of having to make a difficult decision.
Reply With Quote