Re: What would be the best limit to start at?
Rusty, I think most likely it's just a semantic difference in how we're treating +/- 1%.
To me, if the EV is 4400 (in 8800 trials), +/- 1% is the range [4356...4444]. The +/- 1% being one percent of the EV.
It looks like you're using +/- 1% being the range [4312...4488]. The +/- 1% being one percent of the number of trials.
Using my interpretation of 1%, the chance of being within the range is 65.7%. Using your interpretation, the chance of being within the range is 94.1%.
I'll show you why I think my interpretation is more useful: say that the chance of winning a particular game is 1% per attempt, and you win 200 times in 10000 trials. Your win rate is 2% per attempt. Are you running 1% above expectation, or are you running 100% above expectation?
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