Re: River semi-bluff (yes, river) vs. Heisenb3rg
fwiw, I would not call heis showdown bound in general. In all likelyhood, he shows down very optimally vs whoever his opponent is. he seems to find folds against me a fairly high percentage of the time when I catch after semi bluffing, or when I fairly clearly represent a hand that is calling down but then improves. Its obviously tough to say how often that includes made hands, but I suspect that is the case some of the time. I also suspect he plays other straightforward tags in a similar fashion.
I also know that if I were in his shoes with an overpair or AJ, against a straightforward tag, I would bet the river and HATE a raise. I think paying off most tags with a one pair hand on this river would be a losing play.
I think this play should be called 'turning a made hand into a bluff' in this case. I think heis shows up with JT/QJ a smallish % of the time, and I do think he will b/f those hands mostly as well.
I'm undecided if I like this play but it is definitely interesting.
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