[Phil153]

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Neat idea. But there is a problem. Sorry in advance if I'm missing something.

The play that maximizes one's EV does not necessarily maximize one's EV in Sklansky bucks.

Let's say you know two poker players. Player A plays extremely well. Player B plays just like player A until the river, where he frequently makes very loose calls. Player A has a higher true win rate, but due to the Sklansky bucks player B gets back at the showdown he'll have a higher expectation in Sklansky bucks. (I realize that in PL and NL games player A may do better in Sklansky bucks, but the difference in their true win rates will still be underestimated using Sklansky bucks.)

Even with a large sample size there still will be residuals that result from the differences in style of play. So if you're going to draw a conclusion about a player's true win rate using their Sklansky bucks you need to throw in this uncertainty.

I'm not sure of this, but intuitively when you throw this uncertainty into the equation you'll get exactly what you would if you just used win rate and standard deviation. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable than me can confirm or deny this.

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I believe (I may be mistaken) that the Sklansky bucks calculations used in Troll's analysis was simply the expectation of hands that were all-in before the river vs the actual result.