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Old 11-30-2007, 09:59 PM
Raxxmataxx Raxxmataxx is offline
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 70
Default Re: Stud8 - (AA)K facing reraise from Q door

Why not jam 5th street?

Nobody is likely to have a two pair and nobody is freerolling you yet.

For the low draws to do that they'd pretty much would have had to started out with a small pair and paired on 4th. The K and Q are very unlikely to have helped them even if they were live, and now they're blocked as well. And if they actually do have a two-low with two pair raising might get them to fold, which would be huge.

The flush draws do leave you in bad shape. But it's much worse for a pair of queens or worse, and if he folds you're still going to increase your equity by 10 points or so. Or proportionally you're going to increase you equity by fifty percent getting rid of seat 3 when he only has a pair.

Seat 3 could of course also has a flush draw, which is very bad. And it's not super-unlikely combination wise. If he begain with split queens he's got at least one spade 50% of the time. So *very* roughly he has the flush draw something like 15-25% of the time, which is decreased quite a lot by him just calling your bet. And the same reasoning goes for him having two pair or trips.

If you're getting rid of even a really crappy lowdraw that's going to help you too. Though not as much as getting rid of a pair of queens.

Getting heads-up of course, is the jackpot. Even if you are up against a smooth straight draw. If it's against a low without much for high you've suddenly gone from 25%-30% in a big pot to 67%. If you happen to get heads-up against a straight-flush draw you're still much better off being 1-on-1 rather than a multiway pot.

Seat 4 could have a flush draw, but then he'd have had to have started specifically with two small clubs, and probably not 4c. That's two out of A23678 clubs compared to all the other low cards and pairs he could have had. Of course, once he's raised he probably doesn't have a pair, but it doesn't exclude a ton of low hands trying to punish seat 5.

Anyway, seems like a pretty clear jamming opportunity between you and the best lowdraw. If the other two keeps playing with just pairs and bad lows they're getting stitched up for a ton.

Sometimes you're going to be taking it in the ass from a flushdraw, but that happens.
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