Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble
Just as this board is very dangerous to us, it's very dangerous to Jon unless he's caught a big piece of it. The c-bet Zugwat made is +cEV unless Jon's jamming here with over 64.5% of his preflop calling range, which is totally impossible. I'd be surprised if it's over 10%.
Are there other lines here that are more +cEV? I doubt it, but if they exist, this is an end of the tournament spot where cEV and $EV diverge. The c-bet is an absolutely riskless, significantly +cEV play. Playing this marginal hand against someone who has you outchipped 4:1 to showdown where 1/2 the deck is going to make your hand look very weak is very dangerous, and I just wouldn't do it. Additionally, checking behind on the flop with marginal to good hands heads up is a metagame mistake against a good player IMO.
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