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Old 11-23-2007, 07:33 PM
TWCReborn TWCReborn is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 16
Default Re: hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

Like Todd Terry said, the best you can hope for is probably a flush draw (unless you're pretty sure he is bluffing and not semi-bluffing--which in this case might be impossibly hard to do). You could be looking at a set, a made flush, low-to-top pair and a king-high or ace-high flush draw, two overcards and a flush draw (small favorite), a straight and a flush draw (less likely because if he hits a random club, all he has is a jack or queen high flush draw), or an overpair with or without the flush draw. There is also a possibility that he is exploiting your smaller stack size by representing the above hands on a stone-cold bluff, but this is going to be improbable enough that folding will almost always be the better play here.

A lot of good tournament players will put a smaller stack all in with a flush draw if they put that player on top pair, and almost certainly with two overcards and a high flush draw. They don't want to gamble with 9-15 outters but they know that you want to gamble less than they do given that for you, it's for your tournament life. They also know that in the unlikelihood that you do call them, that they will still have a good shot at knocking you out and taking your entire stack. And in the case that they lose, they will still have a ton of chips. Even if you put him on exactly 2 little clubs, you will be 9 outs to a knock out short of the money. The best chip-ev play (calling against a 9 outter) is not the best tournament equity play as any MTT or SNG player will tell you.

Thus I agree with the cash game player-- I wouldn't bet the flop (which gives away information, that you are value betting a pair). In this tournament setting, even more than in a cash game setting, you're too vulnerable as a shorter stack to a flush draw all-in (because of the pressure of busting). I would check the flop and overbet the turn, enough to give him doubts as to if you have the flush or not, but at the same time protecting your top pair on the turn from a flush draw. The downside is that if a club hits on the turn, your hand is probably worthless against aggressive players who would bluff or bet the nut flush the same way.
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