Re: CP2-7 decisions
Well, Badugi (as usual) guessed what I was up to. (Next time I'll have to post a bunch of utterly straightforward hands to third-level him.)
The examples I gave all have at least two options within 1/10th of a point. (Each was evaluated against a bit more than 4000 relevant hands, so the numbers probably aren't accurate to 3 places but most likely are to two.) I have generally left out options which merely switched kickers around in inferior ways.
#1: 2233555668JQA (vs 4380 sample hands):
-1.86986 2d3c5d5h6c 2s3s5s6h8c JdQcAd
-1.88813 5d5h5s6c6h 2d3c8cJdQc 2s3sAd
55533 28JQA 662 comes in a bit worse, at -1.97, but still close. I found the choice of A23 in front interesting, but it does strengthen the Q-high middle slightly. The similar alternatives are actually very close, well within the margin of error:
-1.89566 2d2s5d5h5s 3c6c8cJdQc 3s6hAd
-1.89361 3c3s5d5h5s 2d6c8cJdQc 2s6hAd
This hand had a surprisingly large number of undominated alternatives.
#2: 4568JK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 23899JA (4434 samples)
karpov got the best option correct, but playing the flush is quite close, with either 99A or 9JA in front.
-1.14118 6h9c9sJdJh 2d3d4h5h8h 8sKhAc
-1.17163 5h6h8hJhKh 2d3d4h8s9c 9sJdAc
-1.18606 5h6h8hJhKh 2d3d4h8sJd 9c9sAc
#3: 344579TTJJQKA (4331 samples)
The best option here is actually the surprising JJ/TT split. Playing the straight doesn't look quite as good but is still within 1/10th of a point.
-1.5366 4hJcJdQcKc 3s4s5c7h9d TdThAs
-1.55553 4hTdThJcJd 3s4s5c7h9d QcKcAs
-1.60125 TdJcQcKcAs 3s5c7h9dTh 4h4sJd
The straight + 9-low seems significantly worse.
-1.81413 TdJcQcKcAs 3s4h5c7h9d 4sThJd
#4: 22445678TTJQK (4444 samples)
Another surprise, playing an 8 in the middle may be the best play, though both 2461Badugi and karpov identified the best alternative:
-1.85329 2dTdTsJsKh 2h5c6c7s8c 4h4sQc
-1.88726 2d4h8cTdTs 2h4s5c6c7s JsQcKh
Playing the straight is awful:
-2.52048 4h5c6c7s8c 2d4sJsQcKh 2hTdTs
#5: 3569J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 35789TJQ (4522 hands)
Another nonobvious split two pair is a strong play here, though the flush/9 low is competitive:
-1.86577 3d5dTcJdJh 3h5s6d7h8s 9d9sQh
-1.90801 3d5d6d9dJd 3h5s7h8s9s TcJhQh
Playing the straight in back is a bit worse as the best play involves abandoning the front with J-high:
-2.02875 8s9dTcJdQh 3d5d6d7h9s 3h5sJh
Going for the 9-high straight instead is pretty bad:
-2.22247 5d6d7h8s9d 3d5s9sTcQh 3hJdJh
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