[iggymcfly]

Utah at Louisville -15.5 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.5u)
Not the absolute best line for L'Ville here, but with the low push frequency on 15, it's still better than taking -14.5(-110). Anyway, I'm going against most of the forum here, but I really think this game favors Louisville.

Sagarin says that the Cards should be favored by 13.5 on a neutral field which seems about right to me. The matchups are slightly in Utah's favor which would knock it down to 11.5.

However, home advantage has to be worth at least a TD here. On the one hand, we have Utah, who's 2-1 at home with a win over UCLA and 0-2 on the road where they've been outscored 51-7. Now, they're traveling cross-country on a short week coming off a rivalry game and they're supposed to come out and play well? Really? It seems like they're ready to get rocked.

To make it worse, Louisville has one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country. Despite two poor performances early in the year, they're still 15-4 ATS at home since 2004. Utah's not used to playing in front of tough crowds and I really think it's going to rattle them. I'd predict a 41-21 final here.