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I think a weak ace is betting the river more than he's calling a raise on the turn.



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This is what constanza was saying, which is why I asked the question about bluffing this turn.

Because if this is infact true, you should be bluffing that turn a lot because if will be very profitable.

However, I don't find that to actually be the case. Ie, I don't think they fold that often to a raise on the turn.

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In this hand there aren't a ton of strong hands for them to have, but maybe in general in this spot they have a hand stronger than TPnK often and that's why it seems like they aren't folding.

If you know 100% he has a weak Ace here I don't think you are getting him to call a raise on the turn and then lead out the river and then call a river raise. At best he's calling the raise, checking the river and calling a bet.

I think that same player is leading the river and calling a raise pretty often.

So, yeah, he might be calling turn and not leading the river even if you don't raise the turn, so you might miss out on one bet there if he has a weak ace - or you might not. He might have folded when he would have either lead the river or at least called a value bet on the river.

If he has less than a weak Ace you're almost certainly getting less value by raising the turn.

If he has more than a weak Ace, he's probably leading river and calling your raise.

Reads would certainly come into play. There are lots of players who never fold top pair and there are lots of players who measure your flat call on the turn as a sign that you can be bluffed on the river.