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I understand that we usually think of arbitrage as "riskless" selling/buying of nearly identical securities/bonds, but the standard definition of what OP is talking about is merger arbitrage. All mergers are uncertain, and all merger arbitrage involves estimating the risks of deal failure and figuring out whether you are being offered the right odds on the gamble, and hedging risks when possible.

I've done a decent amount of merger arbitrage and the spread the OP is describing is huge. It indicates a high likelyhood of deal failure. I usually use the pre-deal announcement average price (over a month or 3 months) as the price in a deal failure scenario. And if the deal is a stock deal you have to short the acquirer to lock in the spread. Because of this I prefer all cash deals.

It's pretty simple to figure out what % likelyhood of success the market is estimating, given the failure price vs. win price. Your job is to determine whether you think that's reasonable or not, and if not, whether there is a big enough margin of safety to take the gamble.

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i think evan, and most, understand the merger arb strategy.

it seems that the OP, however, just wants to outright purchase OATS without the requisite short of whole foods to make the merger arb bet complete.

Barron