[Michaelson]

People realise we're > 200bb deep here, right?

Leading this flop against a nitty UTG raiser this deep is questionable. It'd be good if his range was wide enough you were likely to get a fold or call, or even if he was the sort to bluff raise, but in this spot he's likely to be pretty strong and you have no moves when he raises you (you have to fold flop here, IMO, with no odds or implied odds).

Basically, when you lead, and he's sitting there with an overpair or set, he thinks "crap, I'm good right now, but that board's drawy, so I gotta pot" and then you're screwed. Also, from his perspective, he can probably fold most overpair's pretty comfortably if you come over the top.

Alternatively, if you check raise the flop, all of a sudden he has to be more cautious with his strong/non monster hands, because a 3-bet will be committing himself in a monster pot where he'll probably only get it in as a significant underdog.