[Sherman]

I thought this article provided a very interesting idea. However, I feel that it cannot work for most things for the reason the author already mentioned.

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In all cases, the question needs to be designed in such a way that the bettor does not have an incentive to do something horrible to cause the outcome to be one way or another.

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Having people make wagers on very consequential outcomes (e.g. the death of people) will inevitably lead to people changing their own behaviors to "help" those outcomes occur.

For example, say there is a wager that the average global temperature will rise 1 degree centrigrade in the next year. The entire year will be filled with gamblers doing their best to ensure that their bet wins. That means some people will be running their air conditioners all the time, and others will never run them. There are obviously many more examples.

In any case, this sort of wagering will lead to behaviors which will not be good for humanity as a whole.

This just one hypothetical example. I am sure there are many more examples where this sort of wagering will lead to very unhealthy outcomes for society.

Sherman