[kidcolin]

you're just looking at points. MJ dropped 37 at 23, but he "peaked" (by his insane standards), ages 24-27 (PER=31). His points dropped, but he started passing the ball and rebounding like crazy.

Same goes for Duncan, Shaq, KG, etc. Scoring didn't increase like crazy, but they got so much better at the other things. Shaq became a great passer ~26 or 27. Duncan improved his rebounding.

Now, let's talk about Dwight. He's shooting 61% this year. He's posting a 27 PER. He's already a better rebounder than Shaq ever was. If he can sustain this production, a Shaq-esque ceiling is pretty fair. Now, I don't exactly expect that. The reason his shooting % is so nuts is because he basically dunks. Which is fine, but that's also why he doesn't shoot a lot of shots. If he ever wants to drop 27-30 a game, he needs to get the ball a lot more and take more shots. Which means he'll have to develop a better offensive game. His %'s will likely drop. I don't know if he can ever match Shaq's combination of offensive prowess while shooting such a high percentage. Shaq was pretty insane in that regard.

I guess that's my long-winded way of saying he'll be insanely good, but I doubt he'll match Shaq's peak.