[Post-Oak]

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I think the point some are making is that, while NWE is 9-2/8-2-1 ATS [aren't you being the results-oriented one here?] they are 3-8 giving 24+ [for future reference.]


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First of all, this is not correct. They are 3-6-2 against a 24+ point spread. You mean to say 24.5+.

Secondly, when did this kind of square logic gain serious currency?

Miami has not covered +2.5 all year (0-11)... therefore we have to assume that any team @ Miami will have to be at least a -2.5 pts favorite? That is ludicrous. You have to look at which two teams are playing. Who cares what the Patriot's have done against an arbitrary 24.5 point spread? Why would anyone even mention that? On top of that, the average score of their 11 games has been 40.2-16.8, they have won 2 games by exactly 24, and they have won 8 of their games by more than 20!

They have some of the worst teams in the NFL left on their schedule (Baltimore, NYJ, Miami). Two of those three are at home, so you should get used to the big spreads. Just because they only beat Dallas by 21 doesn't mean they won't beat the Dolphins by more than that.

Accusing me of being "results oriented" for mentioning the Pats as 9-2 ATS is also ridiculous. We are 11 games into the season, and I think we can make some educated guesses as to the relative strengths of the various teams. Coming into the season, it was widely believed that Baltimore was better than Cleveland. After 12 weeks, how many people would still hold this viewpoint? Do we have absolute proof that Cleveland is the stronger team? No, we don't. But based upon the information that we do have available, it is possible to come up with an educated opinion. I wouldn't call this "results oriented" thinking. It's true that we don't have a huge amount of data, but we still have enough to form an educated opinion.

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At some point a reversion to the mean is going to occur, and not every game will be against BUF missing their starting QB and RB and CB.


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Yeah, some games will be against even worse teams.

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The NYJ could be off the charts ugly so that spread will be interesting to see.


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Well, if it is over 24.5 we know it is an automatic bet on the dog for anyone who mentions the invented 3-8 Against 24.5 Point Spread statistic. Of course, anyone this illogical would also take Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5 @ Patriots. I mean, what the hell is that stat supposed to have to do with anything?

Finally, you owe me $100. If you want a double or nothing bet, I will take NYJ @ NE -23 or Mia @ NE -23 right now. This offer is based on your "gg 21+ dogs".