I recently made a post that received some very quick "why is this even a thread" answers, which at first glance seemed entitled. But I wasn’t too happy with the answers and with no full analysis I decided to give it a shot. And when I thought about the hand, those people who answered might just have been a bit too quick analyzing the hand and my play.
I’m going to break this hand down and give you my analysis on it, and hopefully get some good feedback. If you think my analysis sucks or is just more suited for 25/50(hehe!) or 0.5/1 please say so and be constructive.
Circumstances
My opponent is running at 17/13 over 4200 hands which tell me his stats should be fairly accurate, I could see him playing from 16/12 to 18/14-ish with only 4200 hands on him though. This also obv depends on his mood but we got to assume it’s kinda accurate.
His flop and turn AF is 3.7 respectively 4.5. So he’s also an aggressive player.
My analysis is based on him being a good player and that he knows I am a good player both statements should be true for regulars at 5/10.
The hand
Party Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter
CO: $1,309.50
Hero (BTN): $1,510
SB: $512
BB: $1,000
UTG: $955
MP: $1,131
Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $40</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $40, SB calls $35, BB folds
Pre-flop in this position I think he will play 22+, AJo+, ATs+, KQo+ and some bigger SCs, like T9s+ and also suited broadways, and mix it up with the occasional 64s etc. In PokerStove this makes up 12,8% of all hands in Hold’em and I think that sounds fairly accurate. Leaving the deviation in his range for some other SCs.
Flop: ($130) J
5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9
(3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">MP bets $99</font>, Hero calls $99, SB folds
I think he will cont-bet this flop all day long with his flop AF and his bet sizing doesn’t tell us much either. Now we go into level 2 thinking: he knows I will not float here with air, because his perceived as tight, but especially since I have one player to my left, who hasn’t acted yet. So from his POV I got to have a hand here or at least a gutshot with overcards. I can’t put him on any hand yet but he could put me on a range of hands that could look like this:
KQ, 55, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, T8s, JTs, QTs, QJs, KJs, AJ, and T8s. He knows that he’s perceived as tight so he could expect me calling him more with high pairs when he raise from early positions and also just call him on that flop with those, aka slowplaying.
Turn: ($328) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $210</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $600</font>
Versus my range, how many hands would I actually fold here if he bet? With T8s, KQ, 99, JJ, 55, QQ, QTs and I continue for sure. And maybe also with JTs,KJs,AJ. I continue to play, some hands due to his high turn AF. So when he second barrel he gets TT and most likely JTs to fold and maybe also KJs and AJ. So that sounds like a bad move if he’s got one pair/air. Furthermore when he checks and I bet he got to think of a hand that bets here, let’s say I bet KQ, 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and QJs for sure. I am more inclined to check here with KJs and AJ since he just checked, which seems suspicious. He's the type of player that would make a bad(imo) second barrel here with a bluff, so he don't and I can put him on a good hand/nada that won't call anyways if I bet. Lets say I check TT, JTs, QTs and a lot of the time KJs and AJ. I then only bet with a hand that has a one pair hand in a bad shape. So if he holds a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he knows that if I bet and he check/raises he only beats KQ, which is really bad from his perspective. So with a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he would most certainly bet/fold or check/call, which he didn't.
So his check/raise doesn’t mean AA/KK/AQ/AJ, well what else would he do this with? He knows I could very likely have turned a big hand here if I bet, so his check/raise looks really strong to me. My top two pair looks sweet, but we’re not beating one hand, are we? We get to chop with QJs and all other hands he check/raises here with has us crushed, like: 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and KTs.
Appendix
He might interpret my bet as weak and C/R me because of that, but I don't think he will do if often, if at all since he won't be getting a fold here exept from KJs and AJ that might bet this turn for a free showdown and fold. Just because I bet kinda small doesnt mean I am weak, it's the fact that I DO bet that tells the story.
Conclusion
If he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.