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I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05
Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75
Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds
River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.85</font>, UTG folds
Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)
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IMO this is a terrible play as a bluff. You have the best hand here like 80% of the time. Why would you think he has AJ/AQ? Limp-call, check flop, check-call half pot on turn? He's either blocking with a King, or has the flush which he doesn't fold. I think it's extremely unlikely you bluffed him off a better hand than yours.
Oh also, your line is completely unbelievable. You rarely check this flop with twopair+ or a flush draw. This is a better value bet than it is bluff.
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You make valid points but I don't think they change the effect of the hand very much. Maybe I misspoke when I said I'm "turning my hand into a bluff." I agree he has a KQ or some K here relatively often. I don't make less money than if I called though, so the raise isn't worse than calling.
Against this particular villain though I was confident AJ made up a very large portion of his range, and I also knew he wasn't calling a huge raise on the river.
As for "[either having King or flush]" I guess we just disagree but I think table dynamics/image made AJ and AQ to a lesser degree quite likely and flush quite unlikely.
I have been looking at hands like this lately b/c I will usually call b/c I feel the flush calls and I am ahead often. However, I have decided with a strong read a shove to fold out AQ/AJ is greater EV. Obviously reads are of paramount importance in a spot like this.