Re: How much should you trust your reads?
I believe putting your opponents on 1 hand exactly is just a bad idea.
I have friends who say "I put him on AK" where AA, KK and AK play the same way. It is easy to remember the times where your read was correct and forget the times where it wasn't.
If somebody folds KK pf to a rr and says "I put him on AA when he 3bet" I think he is a bad player.
That said, of course you should fold when you think you are beat and don't think you can bluff. And no, you don't have to take std lines. Here, if you said "I think I am mostly beat here" it would be a good read. When you say "I know he had a gutshot" I think that's more like a bad range evaluation than a perfect read.
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