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Old 11-22-2007, 06:08 PM
Shattered Shattered is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 297
Default Re: How much should you trust your reads?

I'm sorry if this sounds like a bad beat post as I certainly didn't intended it to be one. The reason I posted results is because I'm also not asking people to critique the hand, really, so much as the thought process (I know the hand was played poorly on the later streets). The thing is, there really is nothing in the hand that suggests that a straight is the biggest part of his range except for subjective timing tells and the like. The sample size is tiny, we've been in maybe 2 pots together, but my gut is screaming at me that he has the straight here every single time based on timing cues and other subtle factors.

Now, one of the first rules of gambling is to not rely on hunches to play against the odds. The standard play on a wet board BvB against someone who's shown to not be very good is to just stick it in ASAP, and I would normally not even think twice before shoving. However, since everything except what's shown in the hand history says that I was behind, I'm wondering if I should trust my read or to go with what's the standard +EV play. Obviously, the extent to which you should avoid going on your gut instinct in poker as opposed to in games such as blackjack is greatly reduced due to the human element, but I'm asking to what point I should trust what I feel rather than what is technically the "correct" play. (Obviously I don't want to get caught inbetween the two and cop out by just calling, as I did in the actual hand).
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