Earlier today I had an interesting hand where I knew exactly where I was the entire way. I'll explain my thought process and the action in words before I post the hand history because I feel I can better give an example of how things played out.
Preflop, I had AA in the BB and the SB completed. I was really happy to see this because in the 20 hands I had played with SB, he was a complete donk. He had minraised my BB last orbit and I had 3-bet him with 66, taking it down on an AK4 flop.
The flop came a beautiful K57 two tone, one of the best flops I could hope for. I bet 3/4 pot and he snap called. At this point, I know exactly what his potential hands are. HIs range is any pair or draw; a flush draw, a gutter draw, a king, a 7, whatever. The turn comes a six and my heart sinks a little as the gutter draw was a huge portion of what I hoped to valuetown. He immediately slumps into a 20 second thinking period before firing off 3/5 pot.
I'm 100% certain he just filled his gutter. Granted, I'd only played 20 hands with him, but I was absolutely certain; my intuition was screaming it and I'd seen the same thing before. Yet, I called anyways. Raising was the "principled" thing to do, but I knew I was behind which was burning money; so I compromised and did the worst of all the options.
Turn came the 6h, filling the only other draw out there. This, I felt, was irrelevant, as I was still sure he had the straight. I called down the same size bet on the river that I did on the turn (after all, to call on the turn and fold here would be ridiculously bad, says the logical portion of my mind).
Completely unsurprisingly, he flips over 34o and scoops the pot, and I'm left confused as to what the right play was. I should never be folding AA on the turn to an "unknown at 25NL in BvB" and the read was "only over 20 hands." Yet my prediction was rock-solid based off of things like timing, table dynamic, history, and past identical experiences. Although this may seem superficially like the hundreds of "I have a hunch my middle set is no good" posts you see, I feel like my read was impeccable and there's no way he could have anything but what he did. Should I go with my instincts or go by the book?
Here's the hand converted.
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
UTG: $23.40
MP: $72.45
CO: $24.90
BTN: $24.30
SB: $22.75
Hero (BB): $25.70
Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB calls $0.15, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.75
Flop: ($2) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, SB calls $1.50
Turn: ($5) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3
River: ($11) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3
Results: $17 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
SB showed 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a straight, Three to Seven) and WON $16.20 (+$7.70 NET)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$8.50 NET)