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Old 10-26-2007, 07:29 PM
Khumalo Khumalo is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 82
Default Re: 50nl 6max: 3 hands leading to 4th confrontation

I lead the turn in hand 3. But you're asking about hand 4 ... I'm not sure about the snap call in this spot. You showed three previous hands and in two of them villain overbet with TPTK+, and his river bet on the third one looks more legit than not, given how scary the board is (though your turn c/c and river checks complicate matters.)

What argues in favor of a call for hand 4 is that he's not repping a whole lot: KT, 97, and I think he usually raises a set (or a smaller 2 pair) on that turn (given hand 2 and the increased drawiness of the board.) It's hard to imagine him playing a naked K like this. I also wonder about a donkishly FPSed AA.

You're getting 1.6 to 1, so you need %38 equity to break even.

This is a river shoving range that you're 0 EV against here given pot odds: {for value: TT, 66, 88, 55, AA, KT, AK, 97, T8, 68, 65, Kh9h; as a bluff: QT, 99, T9, JT, A9}

So call if you think he can be making a play with (roughly) as many as 5 of his board-relevant combos here (I have him turning some made hands into bluffs, which is a little unusual, but you can try substituting other 'air' combos if you can think of some, like AQ or whatever.) Or you can discount his sets and some of his two pairs (or AA, especially!) just enough that he needs to be bluffing with like one less combo for you to call.
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