[grossmeyer]

If you read that last line of my post, you'll know I am wary of being results oriented.

If I knew how to run fancy Pokerstove analyses I would quote numbers to you, but without them I can only give the highly technical answer that I have the "feeling" that the river push is closer than we think. I agree about the bet of 600 on the river; you have to bet enough to prove to them that you are comitted to the hand. In most cases, it will be a push. Or you check. I don't think it is "wrong" to check here; after all we are going to find out who won and we are still in the tourney if we lost the hand. But some moves just scream donk; min c/r, then check(?!!) the turn? What? If Daniel Negreanu did that to us, we'd be like, aww crap, what is going on?? Versus an unknown player at the beginning of a tourney, is it all that improbable that this isn't classic donkey? I think the times you bust out from going all-in based on a read like this will not be -EV. The key words are "based on a read." No one reads anyone else right 100% of the time, but the best players get the reads right often enough.

I'll stop rambling now.

-Gross