Re: 2-7 TD stats checkup
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Hand 2:
You missed a really easy value bet on the end here.
Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($3/$6)
Button at Seat 4.
SB posts $1. BB posts $3.
Hand: [4d 8c Ad 2s 6s]
Round 1: (1.33 SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises. </font><font color="#666666">CO folds. </font><font color="#666666">Button folds. </font><font color="#666666">SB folds. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font>
BB takes 2. Hero discards Ad.
Hand: [4d 8c 2s 6s 7h]
Round 2: (4.33 SB)
<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font>
BB takes 1. Hero stands pat.
Hand: [4d 8c 2s 6s 7h]
Round 3: (3.17 BB)
<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">BB calls. </font>
BB takes 1. Hero stands pat.
Hand: [4d 8c 2s 6s 7h]
Round 4: (5.17 BB)
<font color="green">BB checks. </font><font color="green">Hero checks. </font>
Total pot: (5.17 BB - $31)
Results:
Total pot $31 | Rake $1
Hero had [4d 8c 7h 2s 6s]
BB had [2d 7c 8s 4s 3d] and won ($30) with Lo: 8,7,4,3,2
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I'm interested in this hand since I probably would have played the river same as him. Is the reason it's an easy value bet because you could be standing pat with anything up to a Jack? Should he call if raised?
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Anyone like the BB check-folding 8-7-3-2-x on round 3 here? IMHO, he's drawing dead too often.
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The fold seems close to correct to me. Even if Hero's hand range includes a pat Nine, the dead out calculator says Villain would be 4.24 to 1 to win, while the pot is offering him 4.17 to 1. And if he doesn't bet an 874, he's not getting any implied odds (in fact he probably suffers from reverse implied odds.)
Of course, against hero's actual hand it's only a 3.2 to 1 dog.
If you believe you have odds to draw to an 87, I think you have to bet/fold the river. Not sure about a 74 draw, I still think a bet-fold may be in order when you catch the 8. (If you never donk-bet your 8s, what are you going to get paid off with when you hit a wheel?)
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