[Bill Haywood]

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Iraqi nationalism, in my view, can trump the Shiite–Sunni divisions.

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Laughable.

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What Arabic newspapers do you routinely read?

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Iraq is an artificial nation comprised of three actual nations who all hate each other. Our leaving isn't going to change this.

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I constantly hear this glib stereotype, something to the effect that "THEY've been fighting for thousands of years, nothing will change that."

"three nations who all hate each other" this is a gross generalization of tens of millions of individuals.

While old baggage plays a role, ethnic conflicts are usually the result of recent events. The fighting in Bosnia was a great example. Muslims and Christians had gotten along just fine, living in the same neighborhoods, intermarrying, working together, etc. It was only when opportunistic leaders began creating divisions that fighting broke out.

The extraordinary tensions between Zionists and Palestinians is only 100 years old. (note key qualifier, "extraordinary")

Now take Ulster. There's a conflict that really does go back centuries, but is now at peace.

Saying whether Iraqi nationalism can trump ethnic identities is an immensely difficult question, requiring immense data, which is why we read things from the well-informed, like the aid official. It probably can't be predicted even by the best informed, it just has to be tried.

Right now, the presence of the occupation stimulates fighting against it. We can't know how removal of the U.S. could transform things. Most people DO want to get along. Shia and Sunni interacted peacefully all the time, and the author linked to was suggesting there's a chance people's desire for normalcy will prevail. That's something to be contemplated, not dismissed with one word by somebody without any language skills or specialized knowledge to address this huge issue.