Re: Stars Million: Ugly spot with TPTK
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Wrote up this whole long response, but I think I'm better off just summing it up: if you think he calls preflop with JTs, then call the flop. Otherwise, fold. If you're not sure, call.
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This really doesn't make sense, adding exactly one possible combination to his range that I'm 55:45 against doesn't swing this from a fold to a call. His PT stats are 12/9 over a few hundred hands fwiw. It is pretty unlikely he's calling with a suited connector here preflop. It's pretty unlikely he's overplaying AQ this badly. That doesn't leave much else. Against a very generously wide range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.237% 17.70% 18.54% 2803 2937.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 63.763% 45.22% 18.54% 7163 2937.00 { 99, 77, AQs+, JdTd, 8d7d, AKo }
Put in a couple combo draws and AQs to represent a dicounted possibility that maybe he ever has that hand. And it's still a fold, as I need 37.5% equity to breakeven. I feel I'm prboably in even worse shape against his actual range though. Against a random donk I'd of course instacall. Thoughts?
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