Thread: bad turn fold?
View Single Post
  #3  
Old 11-10-2007, 03:19 AM
abscr abscr is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 173
Default Re: bad turn fold?

All numbers created while under the influence, but I think it's correct . . . .

You're probably behind and need to spike a queen to win, which is 20.5:1, assuming 6xxx (I think it's better if he has a top FH). It is +ev given implied odds is 34:1 if he stacks off when you hit. I think he has to stack off 57.3% of the time for it to be break even given that he has 6xxx (assuming he'll either stack off or fold to a bet on the river; not very realistic dichotomy, but whatever).

So, "it depends", but you should have some idea about the player that will let you know whether it's a call or fold. Also, the numbers are a little better if SB calls, but there is the chance SB will raise, in which case you'll probably have to fold or weigh the chances of him stacking off, too, but, I'm too lazy to even begin to start the percentages of those numbers.
Reply With Quote