Re: Iggy\'s Week 6 NCAA Picks
Pretty sure that fading all my picks smaller than 2 units would give you a better record than just about any capper you can find. So 0-1, -1.5 units on the week. To be fair though, ESPN's news archive on Louisville didn't show anything about Urrutia or Douglas.
OK, back to the picks:
Florida at LSU -7.5 (Risk 2u to win 2.12u)
OK, first off, LSU is significantly better than Florida. 6 more starters back from an equivalent team last year and 5.5 points better on a neutral field by Sagarin based on this year's results. Personally, I think they're even better than that as they were only really tested in one game and let up on the gas early in the other contests.
The real key here though is the home advantage. Phil Steele rates LSU's home advantage at 5 points and it's well known that the advantage is much higher for night games. Florida, meanwhile doesn't deal well with hostile crowds. Under Urban Meyer, the Gators are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road. Florida should have major troubles in Death Valley, and with the HFA, I'd expect a 14 point victory for the Tigers.
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