View Single Post
  #42  
Old 08-01-2007, 10:41 AM
Stumpy Stumpy is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Mathmagicland
Posts: 483
Default Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

Black,

You have several errors above.

First, folding leaves you with 47k. You don't get your 3k raise back.
That makes ending at 49.5k +2.5k, +EV and +$EV to push.

Second, adjusting his calling range to KK+ makes it better, not worse.
(21/27)*(64k) + (6/27)*(.185)*(104k) = 54k

As I said before, it is the folds that makes this play good, not your odds when called.
Note (21/27)*64k = 49.8k, meaning if you lost every time you were called it is still +EV.

I think it's a serious error to assume the average player in this tournament is only reraising JJ+,AK. I don't doubt that is all you're reraising, but to use that as the player average is far too tight, and you're missing a lot of value that way.
Reply With Quote