[Dire]

I prefer 3-betting somewhat larger preflop and shoving any flop. As played bet $40. He folds this flop way more than 50% and that's going to show an instant profit because of it. Your hand is irrelevant. I'd happily fold to the shove. Getting 6:1 is irrelevant since he has us drawing to two outs somewhere around 100% of the time if he shoves. If you have some read that he's dumb and would shove 88 here then you can also call, you have 10% equity against an ace anyhow. It doesn't really matter. Most of your profit comes from him folding.