[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

[/ QUOTE ] If the bet is for enough money it makes sense to alter your play to increase variance after X hours if you are not close to your goal. And you can quit whenver you reach it. I think a good strategy for this bet and an excellent player should put the chances over 50%.