Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
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Their scoring chance for inside the one must be around 70-80%, opposed to the exactly 50% they have in overtime.
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I actually was hoping to refute this point and defend kicking the FG (on the grounds that they might be better than 50% to win in OT, or that they were not 80% to score), but in fact, it's even more grossly in favor of going for it.
On the year, Arizona had started 11 games (similar to the conditions you'd start an OT period) - of those 11, they scored first only 3/11 times. Obviously this stat has variance on coin flip.
On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.
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