[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can put QQ in his range this becomes a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.774% 30.77% 00.00% 5484 0.00 { JhTd }
Hand 1: 69.226% 69.23% 00.00% 12336 0.00 { QQ+ }


With QQ in his range we now have an EV of -969.49, or about -1K.

But I am still not sure I agree. The guy is not asking about cEV. We all know it is -cEV. The math is right there in front of us. What we don't know is if it is really -$EV.

The question is, can we make more money in the long run by taking a shot here. If we don't take a shot here, we are likely to have a medium stack on the bubble. Everyone knows that stealing with a medium stack is hard and you are the constant target of steals.

However, if we get a big stack, we can abuse the medium stacks on the bubble. We can cruise ITM, build our chip stack, and make a good run at the FT.

If we lose, we are out.

But how much $EV do we lose when we lose? What is probability of making the top 3 if we don't take the shot here? It really comes down to answering these questions.

You need to estimate your tournament equity (in $, not chips) right now. How much do you expect to make on average with this chip stack at this point in the tournament? Now how much tournament equity do you have if you win in this spot and get up to 15K in chips? Multiply that number by our equity (which is somewhere between 30-34%). Now subtract from that number our current equity in the tournament (calculated before). Is the number still positive? If it is, we should take a shot here.

It is as simple as that. It is not about cEV at this point folks. It is about $EV. It is about why we play the tournament.

Sherman