Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
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Ok, this didn't happen recently but I'm watching the Eagles game and it reminded me of something. When a team is down by 15, and there is, say, 8 or 9 minutes left in the game, and they score a TD. You should ALWAYS go for 2, right? Time after time I see the coaches kick the one, to put themselves down by 8, with the plan (apparently) to go for 2 if and when they score again. Doesn't this seem like totally irrational decision based on the fear of "hopelessness" or whatever if you go for it and fail? It makes no sense. Waiting until the second TD, pinning all your hopes on that, has to be worse than trying, failing, and knowing that you now need to score two more times.
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Agreed. Also, there is the situation where late in the game a team down by 14 scores a touchdown. This should be an easy go for 2 descision, but they never do.
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Well, to pick a nit, it's only correct when p + (1-p)*p*q > q, where p = probability of converting a 2-pointer and q = probability of winning in overtime (assuming extra points are 100%).
If we assume q = 0.5, then going for 2 first is correct when p > 0.382, and I think almost all NFL offenses should be able to convert at this rate from 2 yards out. Dunno about college offenses, since their 2-pointer is from 3 yards out.
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I'm kind of tired, but is the reason going for two is effective in this situation because of the choice you get to go for one if you make it?
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