Thread: Bad bad turn
View Single Post
  #4  
Old 10-30-2007, 01:29 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 6,569
Default Re: Bad bad turn

I would check the turn. With the board pairing it has become almost impossible for them to draw out on you. So even though the pot is big you don't need to worry much about protecting it. It's just a question of whether you are getting good odds to bet.

You have to wonder why a "very solid LAGTAG" has coldcalled twice in a row. I can think of three reasons:

1. He coldcalled with a pocket pair and is now slowplaying 66/22. This is a perfect fit for his play

2. He coldcalled with two big (suited) cards and flopped top pair. This is a good fit for his play.

3. He coldcalled with a pocket pair and flopped an underpair. I don't actually have any idea why he called the flop. Exactly how sound is he?

Note the difference here. QJs has five outs and doesn't need too much protection when it is the best hand. It makes sense to just call the flop and see what develops. 88 is a deathtrap that should probably just be folded in a five-handed pot, but if I chose to play on I would 3-bet to drive out as many players as I could. Having thus overplayed my hand it would be easy to fold my 2-outer when people played back at me.

Back to Hero's problem. Checking is a 2-way shot:

1. Button probably has you beaten and checking avoids a raise.

2. If Button does have 88 or something then he is likely to be perceptive enough to take the free card. This saves two bets when UTG+1 has the queen.

Even in the worst case scenario where you give a free card with the best hand maybe it will come back on the river. You've made it a lot easier for someone to payoff with something like 33. Or UTG+1 could be induced to repeat a bluff.
Reply With Quote