[dmoney416]

Weber St (+20) over UCLA (0.5 units)

Weber St. has only lost by this margin twice all season, by 29 @Washington and by 22 @Sacramento St. In addition, UCLA has struggled as a prohibitive favorite as of late, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite.

I am usually not a big fan of betting 1-16 and 2-15 match-ups, but this line is a little inflated in my opinion. UCLA typically plays in the high 60s/low 70s, so 20 points may be a tough task. UCLA also shoots a pultry 64.9% from the line, so a backdoor cover is very possible if Weber St. gets overwhelmed early.

Weber St is, in my opinion, the type of team that can stick around against UCLA because they can really shoot from the perimeter. I think they would have a tougher time if they relied on slashers to score. The outside shot could singlehandedly keep Weber St around in this game. Weber shoots 48.6% from the field (50% in their last five), 39% from 3 (40% in their last five), and they are a good enough rebounding team to hang around with UCLA (+0.8 margin compared to UCLA's +3.1).

I also like Weber St's depth, as they have six players that average seven or more ppg. No one plays more than 27 minutes and they sub frequently, which should keep them fresh and fatigue-free throughout the contest. Four of the five top scorers shoot better than 50% from the field, and they have four players that shoot 40% or better from 3.

Only 0.5 units here as I feel that the dynamics of these games are hard to predict. It is always interesting to see how tight the teams are in a game like this and it is also intriguing to see whether or not the lower seed is overwhelmed from the get go.

If all goes to plan, Weber should be able to stretch the UCLA defense out enough that they can create some easy hoops off of their prolific outside shooting. If Weber can avoid the early game collapse that can plague some lower seeds, then I think they can make a game out of this.

UCLA 70
Weber St. 56