[dmoney416]

Nevada (-1) over Creighton (2 units)

This is more of a value play as I feel that Nevada should be in the low 4-high 5 seeding range (I also feel that Creighton should be a 7 or an 8 seed). I had to take the Wolfpack only laying 1 here.

I am quite aware of how good Creighton is and can be. However, I simply don't feel they match-up with Nevada. Until Creighton's recent run in their conference tournament, I have not been especially impressed with them. They weren't especially impressive during non-conference (yes, I am aware of Funk's funk during this time). They sport respectable home wins over Xavier, G. Mason, and Houston, but they were largely ineffective on the road, losing @Nebraska, @Dayton, @Fresno St., and @Hawaii (all of these losses were by double digits except for a six-point loss to Dayton). They were very solid in-conference at 13-5, but they did lose their bracket-buster game to Drexel and still struggled on the road at times, losing to suspect Indiana St. and Illinois St. teams. Over they were just 5-8 in true road games.

On the other hand, Nevada put together wins @Oregon St., @Santa Clara, Cal (neutral), @Akron, and Gonzaga (neutral) during the non-conference. Their only set-backs in conference were Utah St. twice and @NMSU. They took care of business everywhere else, including sweeping Hawaii (albeit in two very close games). Often this team is made out to be all about Fazekas, but this team has a lot of talent. Eight players average double digits minutes and no player plays more than 30 minutes per game. They are led by Fazekas who averages 20 points and 11 boards per game, but Kemp averages 18 and Sessions averages 12 per game (each of these players shoots at least 79% from the line). Kyle Shiloh (more on him later) and Ikovlev also contribute. Out of their top seven scorers, all of them shoot at least 45% from the field, five of them shoot 70% or better from the stripe, and and six of them shoot 40% or better from three. It will be very tough for Creighton to match that kind of offensive efficiency.

Looking at the stat splits, each team shoots an astounding 75.5% from the line, so that is a wash. Both teams are also solid rebounding teams, as Nevada averages a +6 margin and Creighton averages a +3. However, Nevada scored 10 more points per game (this can be attributed to pace), and they shoot better from the field and from 3. On defense, while Creighton gives up seven less points (this can also be attributed to pace), Nevada is better in terms of FG% and 3-pt FG% defense.

This game is in New Orleans, which is a hike for both teams. In this case, I would prefer Nevada's 10-2 road record to Creighton's 5-8.

The X-factor in this game is the status of Nevada's guard Kyle Shiloh (9.3 ppg and a good defender). He was injured in the Idaho game and didn't play in the team's two point loss to Utah St. in the semifinals. It was originally reported that he may be out indefinitely, but a Nevada newspaper reports that they are optimistic about his return:

The good news for the Pack is starting guard Kyle Shiloh, who missed the Utah State game with a hamstring sprain, is expected to be back for the NCAA Tournament.
"He will be able to play, I'm pretty confident of that," Fox said. "Speaking with the team doctor (Jim Pappas) last night, he would not have let him play (Saturday), although Kyle asked to play last night. But he had soreness in there. We need to strengthen it back up.
"Kyle is unique. He didn't swell much after the sprained ankle (March 1). He was better (from the hamstring injury) yesterday morning than anyone anticipated. But obviously he wasn't able to play. I don't think he swells as much (as most people). Everybody's body is different. And he's a tough kid. It wasn't easy to tell him he couldn't play. He knows he has a huge impact on that game when you play Utah State. So, it wasn't easy for him, but it's what we had to do."
Shiloh has averaged 29 minutes played per game this season and Fox said the guard shouldn't have to reduce his minutes in the NCAA Tournament because of the injury.
"I think he'll be fine to be honest with you," Fox said. "I won't know for sure until we get out there and start to run around. I would be surprised if he's not (fine)."

With Shiloh, I like Nevada to win by 7-10. If he plays, I will keep this play at 2 units. If he is out, I think that Nevada wins a close one, in which case the play may be reduced to 1 unit.

Nevada 72
Creighton 63