Re: Macau 15k Hand
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I bet about 11-1200 on the flop, 2300ish on the turn and prolly 3k on the river... I almost always prefer to keep the pot smaller than you did here
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if you want to simplify the hand and generally play it better, do what Waco said and keep the pot smaller.
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I don't understand why waco and shane want smaller flop and turn bets. No one is changing their flop action with one pair/two pair/set based on bet size, and the player described isn't changing his turn action based on bet size either. Maybe you get a small bit of extra flop value from medium pair w/ medium spade but that value is slim because that hand actually has a decent amount of equity and if you bet too small you would prefer he fold. Also, against the table descirbed and player described, I think we almost always will have easy folds on a fourth spade, so bloating a pot we get bluffed off of shouldn't be a concern. So unless you think 1200/2300/3k (4-5k?) gets the river bet called way more often than 1600/3500/shove, there's no reason to bet less. It has to be a lot more often too, because two near pot bets gets you nearly as much as as three small ones. The only other reason to bet less is to induce bluff raises, which I really doubt can play significantly into the decision on either a multiway flop bet or a turn bet into this guy.
As for the river, the most likely hand that beats you that plays this way is the nut flush and given the kk hand setup I kinda think that's what he had. I can't see him checking a boat, because you have a tight image and people who check kk as in the example hand expect other tight players to play the same way, so he would be too afraid of you checking behind a flush. Paradoxically (or perhaps not; this is just where this kind of player's exploitability gap is), there's enough that he'll call a bet with to make a bet worth it. I don't see him calling a shove nearly as wide as a smaller bet that leaves him chips, though. 5k bet/fold, i guess, although shove is fine too.
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I think that advocacy for smaller bets relies on the assumption that said villain will stay in the pot and you can extract max. value against his style while having room to fold to a RR. We know that against other players, however, betting more is great because they may call you down thinking you were trying to buy the pot with As / slow play something / blah blah. Also, it's a multiway, so I think betting amount was standard here.
The problem with this hand is that it's less likely your opponent is calling you down with a J here, more likely that he has either a higher flush that is afraid of a FH or QA, and now that said J hit, he is very unlikely to pay you off to a push on the river with QA. And, KsJ or AsJ make up only two hands he has as compared to wider range of hands that either fold or have you beat. Also, your opponent cannot see through small river bets as blocking bets, so you can either bet 3K/fold OR check behind.
Barry
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