Re: NL25 - JJ overpair on the flop
Raising to $6 is +EV if villain has AK here more than 46%(6/13.1 right?) of the time(Assuming that he folds AK to a raise and we shutdown if called). That's quite close I think as there are 16 combination of AK and 18 of overpairs. Another thing is that I don't think he reraises AK and then makes a cbet 100% of the time. So fold and raise to $6 are close?
If I call then there are a few overcards to worry about later but if there is at least ~34%(2.5/(9.6*0.76)?) chance that villain has AK here and then villain doesn't make a big bet on the turn calling could be +EV. Thoughts?
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